Is Waymo About to Dethrone Uber?
Nov 1, 2024 · 9:30
Uber stands to capture the $25 billion that US riders pay drivers each year by partnering with Google's Waymo, which has scaled driverless rideshare from under 300 rides per day in Phoenix last January to 15,000 rides per day across four cities, on track for 40,000 within a year. Phil Andrews argues Uber's exclusive Waymo deal in Austin and Atlanta lets the historically asset-light company pocket $0.70 per mile, since riders pay $3.20 per mile while a Waymo costs at most $1.50 per mile to operate, and to redesign the door-to-door experience it currently can't control with human drivers. Using Chicago's full 136-million-ride dataset, he estimates covering peak demand would take roughly 10,000-20,000 cars per city, or a minimum of 300,000 Waymos across the 30 largest US cities. At a $0.15 per-mile profit and 50% market share, Waymo could earn $4 billion a year, though Tesla FSD, Zoox, and Nuro compete, and the next city choice—snowy or Sunbelt—will signal the software's confidence.
